Emerging-market stocks and currencies rose Monday as signs that the United States and Iran are nearing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices below US$100 per barrel and boosted risk appetite .
MSCI’s gauge for emerging-market stocks added 1.6 per cent, gaining for a third session and pushing its year-to-date advance to about 22 per cent. A companion gauge for developing-nation currencies strengthened 0.3 per cent. U.S. cash markets are shut Monday for the Memorial Day holiday.
Officials from both Washington and Tehran signalled the two sides are closing in on a interim accord, with U.S. President Donald Trump saying on Monday that the talks were “proceeding nicely.” He also urged Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other countries to join the Abraham Accords, adding to signs an accord is nearing. Still, negotiations on some issues continued.
“EM currencies are rallying on optimism around a potential Iran deal, amid a drop in oil prices and thin liquidity due to the U.S. market holiday,” said Marco Oviedo, senior strategist at XP Investimentos. Still, “the situation is fluid” and negotiations could be delayed or ultimately fall apart,” he added.
In FX markets, most developing nation currencies advanced against the dollar, and South Africa’s rand was among the top performer. A key bellwether for risk sentiment due to its liquidity, the rand also benefited from Brent crude falling below US$100 a barrel.
Hungary’s forint, East Europe’s most exposed currency to oil swings, also jumped even though the local market was closed. India’s rupee hit its strongest level in two weeks, helped by comments by the country’s central bank that it may be undervalued.
Still, a degree of caution remains in markets , with any meaningful price gains across asset classes conditional upon the actual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Maybank strategists including Saktiandi Supaat wrote in a note, adding that there have been “plenty of false starts before.”
Investors want to see clear steps on both sides that will lead to a de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran, according to Naomi Fink, chief global strategist at Amova Asset Management.
“If we do see this, it’s likely that we’ll probably continue to see reward in the equity markets,” Fink said on Bloomberg TV. Stock investors “seem to have downplayed this whole conflict to a surprising extent in favour of the ongoing massive boom in investment.”
—With assistance from Mpho Hlakudi and Gabriel Diniz Tavares.