OTTAWA — The smell of a byelection in Chicoutimi, Que., was already in the air in mid-July when federal Housing and Infrastructure Minister Gregor Robertson announced $434 million for 2,000 extra affordable housing units that would be built in the province in partnership with the Quebec government.
Among those projects was a housing cooperative in Jonquière, La Solidarité, which will benefit from $6 million in funding from the federal and provincial governments and the City of Saguenay. The advocate for the project, Sonia Côté, had fought for the project to come to fruition for 13 years. On that day, an emotional Côté finally declared victory.
On August 31, the Carney government is hoping to also declare victory in the federal riding of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord — a riding two hours north of Quebec City — left vacant after Conservative MP Richard Martel was appointed to the Senate.
Two other byelections will take place that day in the Toronto riding of Beaches—East York and in the B.C. riding of North Vancouver—Capilano to replace former Liberal ministers Nathaniel Erskine-Smith who attempted a run in provincial politics and Jonathan Wilkinson who is now Canada’s ambassador to the European Union.
Philippe J. Fournier, creator of the polling aggregating website 338Canada, said that while all three races will be interesting to watch, there is no doubt in his mind Chicoutimi—Le Fjord will be the most compelling.
In the 2025 federal election, only three points separated first place from third place in the riding, he explained. Martel won his fourth mandate with a razor-thin majority of 34.1 per cent of the vote. The Bloc Québécois ended second with 31.2 per cent, while the Liberals ended third with 31.1 per cent of the vote.
With Martel gone, all bets are off. “All three parties — the Conservatives, Liberals, Bloc Québécois — can reasonably say, ‘We have a shot here,’ and that’s why I think it’s going to be so fascinating,” Fournier said.
Last week, TVA Nouvelles published a Pallas Data poll commissioned by the Bloc in the riding showing a statistical three-way tie. While the Bloc was in first place at 30 per cent, the Liberals were not far behind with 28 per cent, the Conservatives were third at 26 per cent and 13 per cent of voters in the riding remained undecided.
Fournier said those numbers were roughly in line with his latest Canada338 projection, which show the Bloc first at 32 per cent, the Liberals at 31 per cent and the Conservatives at 30 per cent in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord.
The Liberals were first out the gates on Friday in announcing their candidate, Daniel Gobeil, a dairy farmer who served as president of Les Producteurs de lait du Québec and Les Producteurs de lait du Saguenay—Lac-Saint-Jean. His candidacy comes at a time when the dairy lobby and supply management feel under threat during trade negotiations with the U.S.
The Bloc will count on Caroline Dubé, a local community leader and former political staffer, to be their candidate, while the Conservatives announced that Régis Gaudreault, a law professor for the Cégep of Chicoutimi, will try to follow in Martel’s footsteps.
Fournier noted that the Saguenay region was hit hard by U.S. tariffs last year, especially on aluminum. With the Trump administration ramping up threats of more tariffs, including 50 per cent tariffs by August 19, Fournier wonders if voters will want to punish Carney or if they still view him as the best person to defend their interests.
Then, there are also questions about Conservative support dropping in Quebec.
He also noted that while Conservatives — and especially Martel — had a base in the riding, some disappointed Conservative voters could decide to switch parties. That is what happened in the Montreal-area byelection of Terrebonne, last spring, which saw Conservative support fall 15 points and led to the Liberals narrowly beating the Bloc.
If the Liberals win Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, Fournier said it might be because moderate Conservative voters decided to switch parties and vote Liberal to stop the Bloc.
But the opposite scenario would also be interesting, he said. A Bloc win just days after the start of the Quebec campaign could “give some momentum to the sovereigntist movement” and help the Parti Québécois form government, Fournier added.
“So, we don’t know what storylines will be the right ones, but there are many to choose from,” he said.
Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet was quick to point out that the date of the byelection not only falls at the start of the school year in Quebec but will likely be taking place just days after the start of the Quebec election. Provincial sources expect the election to be called from August 27 to 29 while the election is set for October 5.
Blanchet said the choice to overlap with the Quebec campaign is a testament to the prime minister’s “total disregard for democratic debate.”
Laura Stephenson, chair of the Department of Political Science at the University of Western Ontario, said there is precedent for provincial and federal campaigns overlapping — pointing to Ontario’s 2025 election during the federal Liberal leadership or the 2021 federal campaign being called days before an election in Nova Scotia.
“It is completely allowed,” she said. “There’s nothing illegal or underhanded about what they’re doing. It is a decent amount of time away from any Quebec election.”
Stephenson said the Liberals’ goal is also of course to assure a strong majority and see where the wind is blowing before the start of a new parliamentary session in the fall.
After those three byelections on August 31, the federal government will have to call four more byelections in the coming months. Liberal MP Steven Guilbeault, Conservative MP Cathay Wagantall and Alexandre Boulerice, NDP MP turned independent, have all said they would be resigning their seats at the end of August.
Bloc MP Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay already resigned his seat in Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton, in the suburbs of Montreal. Fournier said he was surprised that Carney opted to not call that byelection at the same time at the three others on August 31.
The Bloc has already announced a strong candidate in the riding: Caroline Émond, a former executive for the International Dairy Federation and the Dairy Farmers of Canada.
National Post
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